Dave Klinger, Editor. Photos: Marquette Athletics, 247 Sports, USC Athletics
Let’s play a game.
If each Marquette player was stock, which would you buy for the approaching season?
And which would you sell?
“Buy” means the player will produce better than their value. “Sell” means the player will produce less than their value. “Hold” means the player will produce similar to their value.
Let’s take a look at his Team USA stats alone…
- Two-time gold medalist (one as a captain)
- 11.9 PTS with 49% FG
- 48% 3PT… on 37 shots… in five games… with just 21 mins per game
Howard’s got talent and experience. He’s no ordinary freshman.
In a critical season, Johnson did good things.
- 10.2 PTS, 38.5% 3PT on 65 shots, 3.7 STL% (38th in nation)
And he used just over half (56.5%) of the team’s minutes.
His good season merits more playing time. That means more good things from Jajuan Johnson.
He doesn’t have much upside as a fifth-year grad transfer, but you can count on him to play well.
He has similar numbers to Duane Wilson.
- Katin: 11.4 PTS, 2.8 REB
- Duane: 11.6 PTS, 2.6 REB
But he plays more efficiently than Wilson…
- Katin: 108.2 ORtg (Offensive Rating: points produced per 100 possessions)
- Duane: 99.7 ORtg
…while fouling and turning it over less.
- Katin: 15.1% TO Rate, 1.5 FC/40 (fouls committed per 40 mins)
- Duane: 18.5% TO Rate, 3.2 FC/40
This one’s tricky. In his sophomore season, he increased almost all per-game numbers.
- Minutes (15 -> 23)
- FG% (37 -> 44)
- 3PT% (33 -> 35)
- FT% (60 -> 74)
- REB (1.6 -> 3.2)
- AST (0.8 -> 1.8)
- PTS (3.8 -> 5.9)
But regressed in two important areas…
- TO Rate (18.7 -> 20.1)
- FC/40 (4.1 -> 4.4)
…and played pretty terribly in Big East play.
- Cohen, full season: 106.2 ORtg, 53% eFG, 20.1% TO Rate, 4.4 FC/40
- Cohen, conference-only: 91.4 ORtg, 44.4% eFG, 24.2% TO Rate (ouch!), 4.8 FC/40
He’s a gamble. You could expect him to make significant improvements–like Johnson did after his sophomore season–but it’s always hard to bet on an unproven player.
He can hit threes, but he’s not good enough at defense yet to merit lots of playing time.
Some think there’s an opportunity for him to grab rebounds and play around the hoop. He’s more of a wing, though. The roster even lists him as a guard.
Will he shoot a lot? Yes–and make a lot–but not as much as he did at UNC-Asheville.
- Rowsey, sophomore at UNCA: 27.5% Poss, 30.6% Shots (!) 83.3% Min
Let’s compare that to a former high-usage newcomer.
- Ellenson, freshman at MU: 25.9% Poss, 27.9% Shots, 82.6% Min
He won’t be shooting more than a future NBA first-round power forward on a team short of height. If Matt Carlino couldn’t shoot that much at Marquette, then neither can Rowsey.
In general, I’m a big fan of Swaggy Du. But I can’t bet on him if he’s hurting the team almost as much as he’s helping it.
- 99.7 ORtg (negative)
- 23.2% Shots (too many)
- 18.5% TO Rate
He finished the season with more fouls than rebounds. End of story.
Very good on offense, sorta good on the boards: That is what he brings. Don’t expect that to change.
He put up crazy good numbers as a freshman.
- 29.5 MIN
- 11.8 PTS
- 3.4 REB
- 2.2 AST
- 48.9% FG
- 38.7% 3PT
Can the numbers get crazier? I think so. But this is about value, and he seems almost too good to improve in that respect.
(I still think he can get better, though, and that’s scary.)
Very good at giving and taking the rock.
- 32.8% AST Rate
- 3.7% STL Rate
But pretty bad at some other important things.
- 41.4% eFG (yikes)
- 29.1% TO Rate (holy…)
- 5 FC/40
It’s okay if he can’t shoot, because he’s a point guard.
It’s not okay if he gives the ball to the other team 3 out of 10 times he has the ball, because he’s a point guard.
He’ll get better, though. His court vision is too good for him to not improve his ball-handling skills–his assist rate proves it.
He almost never played.
Will he play more this season? Probably, but not a lot more.
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